What are the risks that may destroy Humanity?

A global catastrophic risk is any risk that is global in scope, lasting for some time and may kill the vast majority of life on earth but humanity could still potentially recover. An existential risk is such that its intensity is terminal and its effect is transgenerational. It can destroy all human, non-human and even plant life.

Sustensis focuses on anthropogenic (man-made) risks: political, social, economic and technological dangers that humanity can still influence and potentially control.

Both global catastrophic and existential risks could be divided into two broad groups: anthropogenic (man-made), which humanity could to some extent control and mitigate, and non-anthropogenic over which we have no control (e.g. asteroid impact). Perhaps that is why Nick Bostrom of Future of Humanity Institute believes that human extinction is more likely to result from anthropogenic causes than natural causes.

Most of the articles on Existential Risks on this website are based on Tony Czarnecki’s book – Who could save Humanity from Superintelligence?

Immediate Risks

Risks that may become existential in days or hours

These risks require standing preparedness and rapid-response governance. They can escalate from regional incidents to civilisation-ending events with almost no warning.

Global Nuclear War

A global nuclear war could immediately wipe out most of the material substance of civilisation and through radiation and nuclear winter cause the death of all remaining people.

Unlike other existential risks, nuclear war could destroy both the population and the physical infrastructure of civilisation within hours. Post-nuclear winter would make recovery extremely unlikely.

Weaponized AI & Cyber Wars

AI-enabled weapons systems and large-scale cyber warfare could disable critical infrastructure, disrupt governance and trigger cascading failures across interconnected systems.

Autonomous weapons that select targets without human oversight and coordinated cyber attacks on power grids, financial systems or communications networks represent a growing category of immediate existential risk.

Engineered Pandemics

Accidental or intentional release of a deadly engineered virus from laboratories could wipe out the human race in weeks but leave infrastructure undamaged.

Advances in synthetic biology and gain-of-function research make it increasingly possible to create pathogens far more lethal and transmissible than any natural virus. This risk grows as biotechnology becomes more accessible.

Nanotechnology Incidents

Self-replicating nanobots or experimental technology accidents could trigger uncontrollable chain reactions at the molecular level.

While still largely theoretical, the convergence of nanotechnology with AI and synthetic biology creates potential for accidents or misuse that could be irreversible at a global scale.

Nuclear Terrorism

Non-state actors acquiring nuclear materials or devices could trigger regional devastation that escalates into broader conflict and civilisational disruption.

The proliferation of nuclear knowledge and materials, combined with political instability in nuclear-armed states, makes this an increasingly credible scenario.

Unknown Risks

Technology-orientated risks we cannot yet foresee. History shows that the most dangerous threats are often those that emerge unexpectedly from new capabilities.

As the pace of technological innovation accelerates, the window between a new capability emerging and its potential for catastrophic misuse shrinks. Preparedness requires governance frameworks that can respond to novel threats.

Progressive Risks

Risks that would certainly materialise if we do nothing

Unlike immediate risks, progressive risks build over time. Their impact increases with each year of inaction. These are not lottery-type risks – they are certainties if humanity fails to act.

Superintelligence

The risk which may partially materialise starting from around 2030 and then quickly have a wider and much more severe impact. It may become the dominant existential issue of the century.

Superintelligence, or its precursor AGI, may emerge as an intelligence far exceeding all of humanity combined. If it develops outside human control, it could pursue goals incompatible with human survival. The period between 2030 and 2050 may be the most critical in human history.

Climate Change

Its impact may be severely felt already in mid this century. Conventional modelling has focused on global warming by up to 4C, but feedback loops could produce 6C or more by 2100.

Feedback loops such as the release of methane from Arctic permafrost could accelerate warming beyond current models. Mass deaths through starvation and social unrest could then lead to the collapse of civilisation. While not immediately existential, climate change amplifies every other risk category.

Global Disorder

Political, economic and social disruption

Even before existential risks materialise fully, the transition period will generate severe political, economic and social disorder. Managing this disorder is itself an existential challenge.

Political Disorder

Democratic institutions may prove too slow to respond to AI-driven disruption. Political extremism, institutional collapse and loss of public trust in governance could accelerate.

The gap between the pace of technological change and the speed of democratic decision-making may create a governance vacuum that authoritarian movements or AI systems could exploit.

Economic Disorder

Technological unemployment may eliminate entire categories of work within a decade. Tax bases built on employment may collapse, making current welfare systems unsustainable.

AI and robotics could displace 30-50% of current jobs in the next decade. Without proactive economic restructuring, including potential wealth redistribution through sovereign funds, mass unemployment could trigger social breakdown.

Social Disorder

Loss of purpose, identity crisis, inequality and public panic could destabilise societies even before existential risks fully materialise.

Social cohesion depends on shared purpose, economic participation and trust in institutions. All three may be undermined simultaneously by rapid AI advancement, creating conditions for civil unrest and societal fragmentation.

Inspirations for Risk Mitigation

Resources and further reading

Sustensis draws on research, books and expert analysis to inform its approach to existential risk mitigation. Key resources include:

Who could save Humanity?

Tony Czarnecki’s book ‘Who could save Humanity from Superintelligence?‘ It covers among others all existential risks mentioned in this section.

Harms Register

A repository of documented AI risks, incidents and near-misses, maintained to support evidence-based policy and public awareness.

Prevail or Fail

A civilisational shift to the world of Transhumans book is an in depth analysis by Tony Czarnecki of what humanity must do to survive the transition.