The schedule for a Civilisational Shift

The schedule for a Civilisational Shift to the World of Transhumans

London, 17/6/2023

(This is an extract from the book : Prevail or Fail – a Civilisational Shift to the World of Transhumans’ by Tony Czarnecki)

This section is an outline of an Implementation Schedule for a Civilisational Transition to the World of Transhumans described in detail in chapter 7, part 2. It is a nearly chronological implementation order of interdependent top level components, which I call, ‘The Ten Commandments of a Civilisational Shift’. They must be implemented within the specified deadlines if the control of AI development is to be effective.

I have split the whole period (the current decade) into stages lasting from one to several years. The order of the stages may be surprising, but I will explain later why I would suggest that order as the most practical route, if such a Programme is to succeed. Please note, that the proposed names of the future organisations are just for convenience to make it easier to explain the whole approach. Similarly, the proposed solutions are only one of several options to implement such a plan. They depend on political, legal, and organizational circumstances, as well as on the available information.

The key objective of this plan is to propose a radical way forward, which may enable humans to retain their control over AI for much longer than otherwise might be the case. Although this plan is difficult and makes really big assumptions, I do believe it could be delivered with some changes, if necessary. But seeing how short-term the policies of most governments areand how many organisational and political obstacles the promoters of such an approach may face, I assess the probability of implementing such a plan as low. But by not even trying it, we may seal a dangerous future for humans.

One of the key decisions to be made is to consolidate all major AI projects into one Superintelligence Development Programme. The plan below aligns the decisions to be made with the deadlines, so that the proposed timeline matches the overall objective of controlling AGI beyond its arrival time.

To protect our civilisation and the survival of humanity we must fundamentally change the assumptions about the nature, scope and timing of various necessary decisions and solutions to be implemented, if we want to achieve an effective AI control. We have done that for Global Warming, although we must do much more to stay below 1.5C temperature increase. To prolong the period of human control over AI, we must also take much more significant, and sometimes painful measures, proposed ironically here as ‘The Ten Commandments’ if such control is to be effective and implemented on time.

Let me remind you about an earlier example of what kind of sacrifices we may have to make to be successful, not only in controlling the future AGI, but also preparing humans for their coexistence with its successor – Superintelligence. Many of us consider ‘freedom’ as our most treasured value. But we forget that there is one higher value – Life. If a human species becomes extinct it will mean the end of every human life. If you agree with that, then ask yourself what else could be done to have an effective control of AGI before it is too late. It may help to imagine that we are all aboard ‘Titanic’ and each of the passengers must throw away some of his possessions to save himself and the rest of the passengers.

We are in the wartime situation although this time the enemy is invisible, and the stake is our species’ survival. That’s the situation we are in right now, and that’s why the following ‘Ten Commandments of a Civilisational Shift’ must be implemented if we want to control AI well beyond 2030:

  1. Adjust global AI governance to a civilisational shift since AI it not just a new technology but an entirely new form of intelligence. AI regulation is important but far more significant is AI development control. Both are part of AI governance but require different procedures and have different impact on humans’ future. Perhaps the biggest danger is that the pace of the governments’ legislative changes towards a stricter AI control replicates the same linear pace of change in implementing other procedures, whereas AI capabilities change at an exponential pace’.
  2. Undertake a comprehensive reform of democracy, as it is a prerequisite for achieving effective AI development control and aligning it with human values. We must rebalance the power of governance between citizens and their representatives in parliament,
  3. Retain control over AI governance beyond 2030. While there is no scientific proof that AGI will emerge by 2030, just as there is no proof of the Global Warming reaching a tipping point by that time, we must develop AI as if AGI will emerge within that timeframe,
  4. Create Global AI Regulation Authority (GAIRA) by transforming the Global AI Partnership (GPAI). GAIRA should be responsible for regulating a global use of AI in society,
  5. Create Global AI Control Agency (GAICA) as a Consortium in the USA, since two-thirds of the AI sector is located there. Gradually expand it to engage non-US companies, including China,
  6. Create Global AI Company (GAICOM). This would be a Joint Venture company to consolidate the most advanced AI companies in a single organization. Effective control over AI development will be impossible if it remains dispersed among numerous companies,
  7. Create Superintelligence Development Programme (SUPROG)managed by GAICOM matching China’s efforts in the AI sector,
  8. Create Global AI Governance Agency (GAIGA) under the mandate of the G7 Group. GAIGA would oversee both GAIRA, responsible for regulating the use of AI products and services, and the GAICA Consortium, responsible for AI development control,
  9. Create a de facto World Government initiated by the G7 Group, incorporating members from NATO, the European Union, the European Political Community, or from OECD,
  10. Create a Global Welfare State, which would also include the setting up of a Global Wealth Redistribution Fund, needed to mitigate the challenges posed by the transition to the World of Transhumans.

I describe these Commandments in detail in Part 2. My objective is to indicate potential solutions and notto write down all the procedures of various organisationsthat may have to be set up. Similarly, all the names of various agencies and future organisations are just examples. Much more important are the functions, which such organizations are to perform.

I have also included many diagrams and illustrations to help you better understand the concepts discussed. Please refer to them if something is not clear enough, or you forgot the meaning of one of the acronyms.

Finally, each of the ‘commandments’ starts with the most likely date by when such a commandment must be implemented. They are consistent with the overall schedule above.

Tony Czarnecki is the Managing Partner of Sustensis, a Think Tank on a Civilisational Transition to Coexistence with Superintelligence. His latest book: ‘Prevail or Fail – a Civilisational Shift to the World of Transhumans’ is available on Amazon: