PREVAIL OR FAIL – A new book by Tony Czarnecki, Sustensis

London, 15th June 2023#

This book has beeen published at the time when finally a meaningful debate has started not just about AI regulation, i.e. its use, but about controlling its development. Only then can we hope that the final product – Superintelligence becomes a benevolent entity helping us to navigate a transition to the World of Transhumans and ultimately facilitating our evolution into Posthumans.

The pace of change has never been as rapid as it is today, but the field where exponential progress is most apparent, particularly since 2022, is Artificial Intelligence (AI). The release of ChatGPT and similar AI Assistants signifies a significant stride towards achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). In 2014, the futurist Ray Kurzweil predicted that AI would reach human-level intelligence by 2029, but there is still no consensus on what AGI is.

However, regardless of the kind of AGI, which emerges by about 2030, it is vital that we are able to control it, before it starts controlling us. Such loss of control over AGI will be a gradual process rather than an abrupt event. A complete loss of control will occur when we are unable to reverse AGI’s decisions. As a self-learning intelligence, AGI will outperform humans in any task or situation, including evading human oversight. If AI control proves ineffective, AGI might achieve this even before 2030.

Once AGI gets out of our control, it will resist any attempts to reimpose it. Assuming its capabilities continue to improve exponentially, it may have catastrophic consequences. Therefore, it is imperative to explore all feasible options to ensure human control over AI beyond 2030. This will enable us to better adapt to coexisting with Superintelligence, immensely more capable than humanity. To ensure the survival of humanity, we must fundamentally revise the necessary solutions for effective AI control. Just as we must take more significant actions to address Global Warming, so we must adopt a similar level of commitment to AI development control.

We must recognize that the scale of the required changes represents a Civilizational Shift in the history of a human species. To successfully navigate this transition from our current state to a new civilization, we must accept the magnitude and timeframe required for this transformation. The solutions proposed in this book, are presented as commandments, ironically labelled as “The Ten Commandments of a Civilizational Shift”:

  1. Adjust global AI governance to a civilisational shift since AI it not just a new technology but an entirely new form of intelligence. AI regulation is important but far more significant is AI development control. Both are part of AI governance but require different procedures and have different impact on humans’ future,
  2. Undertake a comprehensive reform of democracy, as it is a prerequisite for achieving effective AI development control and aligning it with human values. We must rebalance the power of governance between citizens and their representatives in parliament,
  3. Retain control over AI governance beyond 2030. While there is no scientific proof that AGI will emerge by 2030, just as there is no proof of the Global Warming reaching a tipping point by that time, we must develop AI as if AGI will emerge within that timeframe,
  4. Create Global AI Regulation Authority (GAIRA) by transforming the Global AI Partnership (GPAI). GAIRA should be responsible for regulating a global use of AI in society,
  5. Create Global AI Control Agency (GAICA) as a Consortium in the USA, since two-thirds of the AI sector is located there. Gradually expand it to engage non-US companies, including China,
  6. Create Global AI Company (GAICOM). This would be a Joint Venture company to consolidate the most advanced AI companies in a single organization. Effective control over AI development will be impossible if it remains dispersed among numerous companies,
  7. Create Superintelligence Development Programme (SUPROG)managed by GAICOM matching China’s efforts in the AI sector,
  8. Create Global AI Governance Agency (GAIGA) under the mandate of the G7 Group. GAIGA would oversee both GAIRA, responsible for regulating the use of AI products and services, and the GAICA Consortium, responsible for AI development control,
  9. Create a de facto World Government initiated by the G7 Group, incorporating members from NATO, the European Union, the European Political Community, or from OECD,
  10. Create a Global Welfare State, which would also include the setting up of a Global Wealth Redistribution Fund, needed to mitigate the challenges posed by the transition to the World of Transhumans.

The implementation schedule in the book is based on three assumptions:

  1. Transhumans (humans with Brain-Computer-Interfaces – BCI) with far superior intelligence than any human will emerge by about 2027.
  2. AGI will arrive by 2030,
  3. Superintelligence will emerge by 2050.

The civilisational shift is our evolutionary test for ‘the survival of the fittest’. The key role in that transition will be played by Transhuman Governors.