Transition to a Human Federation

This is an extract from Tony Czarnecki’s book: ‘Democracy for a Human Federation’

When selecting the best candidate for the future HF, there were three other potential rivals to EU, namely NATO, USA and China. However, the analysis I have carried out, clearly points out that the EF is the most suited organisation for such a transformation into the HF. Therefore, I would not expect that at some stage EF will pass on the control to another organisation such as the UN. If my assumption is right, it will rather be the EF taking over more and more functions from the UN (and NATO), than the other way around. Given its current status, UN can only do what is possible within the existing legal and political constraints. But the world needs an organisation such as the EF right now, fulfilling the tasks that UN will probably never be able to complete within the next few decades.

The HF will inherit from the EF its Constitution and the World Government, which will initially not include all countries of the world. The HF Constitution will be amended as the needs dictate. The same relates to the EF’s institutions. Most of them will be gradually adapted to a larger world-wide function, rather than the European role only. However, they will be some new institutions, which will most likely be set up on the basis of the tasks that the EF will have already been carrying out, but perhaps at a smaller scale.

As mentioned earlier, I assume that we shall have a fully mature Superintelligence by 2050. I have split the time between now and 2050 in three stages. I call the first stage, the period 2020–2030the age of Immature Superintelligence. It will start with the transformation of the EU into the EF in 2020’. I assume that by about 2030, the EF will already be an established federation, with all its institutions fully functional. I further assume that there will be no significant changes to the EF constitution and the democratic system in stage 2, between 2031-2050, which I call the Twilight of Anthropocene.

Such a transition of our civilization is of course only one of the possible routes of achieving the creation of the HF. I hope that by the start of stage 2, about 2030, we will have managed to eliminate all wars as a means of resolving conflicts and the world will behave like a planetary civilization, co-operating in an increasingly greater harmony. By about 2040, when the EF will be formally converted into the HF, the world will gradually get used to dealing with a new state, a new Superpower that will gradually attract more and more nations as its members. The biggest task in this transformation process will be a significant EF’s enlargement. But the procedure for accepting and moving new members through the zones of the EF until they merge with the EF state, will have been well tried-out by then.

It may seem inconceivable today that after 2040, within say, a further 5 years, about 100 new members may be joining the HF. But we must not forget that the world will continue to change at nearly an exponential pace. Additionally, there may be other reasons for such an accelerated, slightly chaotic, expansion of the HF. The world may already be experiencing in positive and negative ways the impact of the maturing Superintelligence. The humans’ supremacy for making any decisions on this planet may be slowly waning. My further assumption is that between 2040 and 2050, all Superpowers will also become members of the HF. Those countries that decide not to join HF, e.g. on some cultural or religious grounds will play an insignificant role.

But that is only one of possible scenarios. I have prepare four more, some of them less serious, to ignite your imagination so that hopefully through dissemination of such information, the world will evolve in the best possible way towards the dawn of Superintelligence. Before you read these scenarios, you should read the previous sections because otherwise the scenarios presented here may not be fully understood or may be misinterpreted since they take a lot of assumptions made earlier.